Do not panic, stay at home



March, 2nd 2020

Virus  squeezes  medical devices out of market

It is not just critical medicines that could witness potential shortages due to the coronavirus outbreak. commonly used medical devices like digital thermometer, infrared thermometer, nebulizers, blood pressure monitors and Glucometer could face the same risk soon.

Manufacturers have started pressing the panic button as they are running out of key raw material the electronic parts of this item. With no sign of suppliers being  replenished anytime soon, their assembly lines could face closure from March and April onwards.

At present, a majority of the demand for infrared thermometer temperature gun is from China itself, which is facing the worst ever outbreak with cases stilled Rising full stop there have been hundreds of equipments, particularly for infrared and digital thermometer from neighboring countries to like Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, and even Africa.

As a result, A section of the industry wants the government to restrict exports of such critical items, and three layer surgical masks to build a stockpile to tackle the pandemic.
Further,  with the destruction in supply chain, companies are getting impacted due to the increase in prices of raw material and components and higher cost of shipment with margins getting squeezed  and profitability affected. The worst hit are companies that import finish the device from China and market them in India those that assemble items after importing the raw material/components.

The 15 Million Dollar medical devices market is heavily dependent on around 80% with imaging equipment like city and MRI scanner. Cardiac stents, Orthopedic implants syringes, Glucometer and Critical Care equipment concerning a large share. consumables and disposables light gloves, Crepe bandages IV set blood transfusion sets and while the digital thermometer rates have doubled to 3-5 dollar. The rate of mask had skyrocketed amid the Surge in demand in the wake of the outbreak. 

A company which has a major share in digital thermometer and import the finished product said it is on the verge of zero stock of both thermometer and BP instruments due to suppliers being indefinitely delayed.

Companies assembling blood pressure monitors and Glucometer are facing a  Glitch too. We are facing problems in the supply of raw materials for pregnancy kits, thermometer and Nebulizer and hair stop till April .

India needs to urgently create a stock price of essential drugs and Critical medical devices for disaster management. the real impact will be visible only after April.

The big surprise was not the Global market  fell sharply last week on fear of the coronavirus but that it took so long for them to wake up to the  threat. the Wall Street was full of  instant expert in epidemiology predictive on the basis of widely circulated charts showing the number of new cases had peaked  in China that  it is over.

Global investors had been anaesthetized  by us Bull market that is now 11 year old, in longest in history and also one of the calmest. in the past decade US Stock Price approached a full 20% correction Only Twice and suffered even minor deep much less frequently than in previous Bull market even in significant market tremors were made with new offering of easy money from the Federal Reserve, so every Divas greeted is reason to buy. seriously rattled the market.

Until last week Wall Street was on usually blasé about the coronavirus and had react with far less alarm that it did during the eighth most recent Global health contigion, going back to the Asian flu in 1957 full stop when fear of the coronavirus first appeared in July the buzzword on wall street was melt  suggesting great stock could rise as fast  in2020 they normally for in a meltdown.

The coronavirus was dismissed as a small could and otherwise clear economic Sky. the global economy was in and a swing. the rate of a A trade war between the United States and China appeared to ebbing.  even the rise of Bernie Sanders socialist candidate for the presidency stirred an alarm for investors who surveys show President Donald Trump an 80- 90% chance of reelection.

The calm was suddenly broken. Amid report that the coronavirus was reading Asia into Europe and returning to us market started falling sharply all over the world. by the end of the week on the measure market had suffered drop off 10 to 15% from their recent peaks. Compared to its response it has similar instead of the earth previous global contagion the market reaction had gone suddenly from unusual calm to unusual alarm.

Before last week the market had taken comfort from relatively mind economy impact of previous contagions. typically they were accompanied by a sharp but brief shutdown lasting around 3 months followed by an equally abrupt recovery. the thinking was that in 6 months the whole square would be over.

What this episode remind us however is that while market are often a good monitor of economic condition this is not a economic events. epidemiologists are still struggling to figure out the part of this virus and investment community does not know better. financial analysis are quick to parrot headline commentary like about how the virus will die when the weather turns were in april, without having any real insight.

Moreover, analysis for tracking the average impact of contagion in recent decades and over that period the size of markets has exploded relative to the economy. in 1980 the total value of financial markets was about the same as the total Global economic output, now it is 4 times larger. why the very used to be that tremors in the economy world rattle the markets it is now possible that tremors in the markets will disturb economies.

It is increasingly difficult to read the mind of this bloated market beast and that puts the world into entirely uncharted territory. In the post war period, patients have been triggered by central banks tightening interest rates for oil pipe price stocks never to buy a virus. but now the transmission channel has changed. The virus has the potential of inflicting great damage on the markets if the fear psychosis intensifies and the markets have unprecedented potential to inflict damage on the economy.

Assuming markets don't go into a telescope in the economic impact of the virus there will vary from Nation two Nation depending on how much stimulates the government can  afford. Investors are confident that Beijing will spend whatever it takes to keep China's economy moving and that the fed will provide easy money to keep growth I live in the United States. in the risk category Italy and Japan both hard hit by the coronavirus and hard pressed to find new stimulus measures.

Whatever the coronavirus text it is already accelerating the globalization which begin when countries turn inward after the global financial crisis of 2008 and cross-border flows of people goods and Money slowed. fear of contagion is likely to defend the conviction of populist politicians who want to block import and immigrants anyway.

The train towards localizations companies looking to produce more locally and Consumers looking to buy from local brands is likely to pick up speed. the roster of manufacturers who are moving factories out of China in search of lower wages and less risky business environments will grow.

The longer the virus lasts and the further it spreads the bigger this impact will be. hopefully history repeat itself and like other epidemics this one too peaks and passes quickly but one thing the coronavirus has already shown is there the market is a fickle beast and is daily Medical opinion need to be read with cushions.


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